Prediction market context
Market title, YES and NO outcome definitions, resolution criteria, current odds or price context, close date, and the specific uncertainty you want the bull shock to test.
Prediction market shock simulation
Bull Shock Simulation
Use bull shock simulation to inject a YES catalyst into a prediction market scenario, compare baseline vs bull shock paths, and inspect which evidence could move market interpretation.
Built for scenario planning, not certainty. Every output should be reviewed against real evidence before an operating decision.
Scenario tape / illustrative
Bull shock simulation for a prediction market question
R1
Baseline marketCurrent narrative mapped
R2
Bull catalystYES case strengthened
R3
Market participantsSensitivity path appears
Shock direction
YES catalyst
Market pressure
Odds sensitivity
Review target
Fragile assumption
Input
Market question, odds context, sources
Engine
Baseline, bull, and bear scenario paths
Output
Catalyst impact and evidence gaps
What to bring
Bring the prediction market before the bull case becomes the whole story.
Bull shock simulation works best when the source includes the prediction market question, resolution criteria, current odds or price context, evidence sources, bull case arguments, bear objections, likely YES catalysts, and the time horizon you want to inspect.
Bull catalyst evidence
News signals, public statements, polling, filings, data releases, legal decisions, product events, policy changes, or other evidence that could strengthen the YES side.
Counter-case and constraints
Bear arguments, unresolved facts, timing risks, resolution ambiguity, crowd assumptions, information gaps, and reasons the bull shock may fail to move interpretation.
Where bull shocks matter
Compare the market baseline with a YES-side catalyst.
A bull shock is not just optimism. It is a specific event or evidence update that could make the YES outcome more plausible under the market's resolution criteria.
YES catalyst01
Test whether new evidence can move the YES outcome story.
Inject a positive event, announcement, data point, or legal signal and inspect how participant narratives may shift toward the YES outcome.
Market sensitivity02
Find which assumption makes the bull case fragile.
Compare baseline, bull shock, and bear-response paths to see where the scenario depends on timing, source quality, or resolution wording.
Follow-up research03
Decide what evidence should be checked next.
Turn the simulated bull case into concrete source checks, resolution questions, narrative gaps, and next scenarios to inspect.
Bull shock simulation needs a catalyst, a baseline, and a counter-case.
MiroFish maps the prediction market question, resolution criteria, participant narratives, YES catalysts, bear objections, timing constraints, and evidence gaps, then runs baseline vs bull shock scenario rounds for review.
Stage 1
Ground the scenario
Upload source material and define the decision, event, or message you want to test.
Stage 2
Build the actor graph
Map the people, groups, incentives, constraints, and memory that shape the reaction.
Stage 3
Run reaction rounds
Let the simulated actors respond over multiple rounds so the second-order path appears.
Stage 4
Question the report
Review the trajectory, risks, weak assumptions, and what evidence would change the conclusion.
What the report should answer
The report should make the bull case reviewable.
- Which YES catalyst could change the market narrative
- Which baseline assumption is most sensitive to the bull shock
- Which bear objection may limit or reverse the interpretation
- Which resolution detail or source needs review before relying on the scenario
- Which follow-up simulation should compare the bull shock with a bear shock
Boundary conditions
Not trading advice or a probability guarantee.
- Not investment, financial, legal, trading, or betting advice
- Not a guarantee of odds movement, profit, probability accuracy, or prediction market outcome
- Not an official Polymarket partnership, integration, or endorsement
- Not live market monitoring unless current market data and sources are uploaded
- Not useful when the market question, resolution criteria, catalyst, or timeframe are undefined
Why MiroFish
Bull shock simulation should test the catalyst, not just argue for YES.
Generic AI can write a bullish case. MiroFish helps inspect how a specific YES catalyst interacts with evidence, market narratives, resolution criteria, and bear objections.
Shock setup
Generic AI
Broad bullish argument
MiroFish
Specific YES catalyst tied to market criteria and timing
Scenario view
Generic AI
One confident YES take
MiroFish
Baseline, bull shock, and bear-response paths
Review output
Generic AI
Opinion with weak audit trail
MiroFish
Evidence gaps, fragile assumptions, and next source checks
FAQ
Bull shock simulation for prediction markets, without trading claims.
Use this page to inspect whether a positive catalyst could change a prediction market view before treating the bull case as obvious.
What is bull shock simulation?+
Bull shock simulation injects a positive catalyst into a prediction market scenario to test how the YES outcome case may change relative to the baseline and counter-case.
How is this different from Polymarket market research?+
Polymarket market research reviews the whole market question, evidence, narratives, and resolution criteria. Bull shock simulation is narrower: it tests one YES-side catalyst and compares the resulting path with baseline and bear responses.
What should I upload?+
Upload the market question, YES and NO outcome definitions, resolution criteria, current odds or price context, sources, bull arguments, bear objections, event timeline, and the catalyst you want to test.
Can it tell me what to trade?+
No. MiroFish does not provide trading, betting, legal, financial, or investment advice. It helps inspect assumptions, event paths, evidence gaps, and follow-up research questions.
Should I also run a bear shock?+
Often yes. A bull shock is more useful when compared with a baseline and a credible bear-response path, especially when resolution criteria or timing can change interpretation.
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Turn a bull case into a scenario you can inspect.
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Start bull shock simulation