Quick answer
Bear shock simulation tests the downside path, not a bearish opinion.
In MiroFish, the useful pattern is to run the same prediction market question three ways: a baseline run, a bull shock run, and a bear shock run. The comparison shows which assumptions survive when the market receives a plausible negative catalyst.
Definition
A bear shock is one downside catalyst injected into an otherwise inspectable market scenario.
The shock can be adverse data, regulatory pushback, a de-escalation signal, a failed milestone, or any concrete event that strengthens the No side of a market question. The point is not to make the model pessimistic. The point is to see what breaks when the downside path becomes plausible.
Examples
Good bear shocks are specific downside catalysts.
A useful bear case simulation does not say “assume the market is wrong.” It names one plausible event that could pressure the current thesis, then compares the result against the baseline and bull shock runs.
Adverse data
A report, poll, metric, or official number arrives weaker than the market narrative expected.
Regulatory pushback
A regulator, court, agency, or rulemaking body introduces resistance that weakens the Yes path.
De-escalation signal
A conflict, strike, shortage, or crisis scenario loses pressure faster than the market had priced.
Failed milestone
A launch, vote, filing, shipment, statement, or deadline misses the condition that the bullish case needed.
Workflow
Run three versions of the same market question.
Step 1
Start with one market question
Use the exact event question, time horizon, resolution criteria, and market context. Do not begin with a vague trading thesis.
Step 2
Run the baseline first
Ask MiroFish to inspect the current evidence, actor incentives, and narratives without adding a new catalyst.
Step 3
Inject a bull shock
Add one plausible positive catalyst that supports the Yes side, then inspect which assumptions strengthen.
Step 4
Inject a bear shock
Add one plausible negative catalyst that supports the No side, then inspect which claims, actors, or evidence gaps become decisive.
Scenario set
Compare baseline, bull shock, and bear shock side by side.
Baseline simulation
Input
Current market question, sources, resolution criteria, and known uncertainty.
What to inspect
The default map of actors, event paths, assumptions, and missing evidence.
Bull shock simulation
Input
One catalyst that strengthens the Yes side, such as a favorable data release or escalation signal.
What to inspect
Which bullish assumptions become stronger and which objections still survive.
Bear shock simulation
Input
One catalyst that strengthens the No side, such as adverse data, regulatory pushback, or de-escalation.
What to inspect
Which downside path changes the narrative and which fragile assumptions break first.
Prompt template for a bear shock simulation
Keep the prompt specific. Name the market question, the resolution criteria, the current evidence packet, and the single downside catalyst you want to test.
Run a baseline, bull shock, and bear shock simulation for this market question. Market question: [paste the exact event question and time horizon] Resolution criteria: [paste the rule or settlement conditions] Baseline: Use the uploaded sources as current context. Bull shock: Inject one plausible catalyst that supports the Yes side. Bear shock: Inject one plausible catalyst that supports the No side. For each run, show the actor graph changes, fragile assumptions, evidence gaps, and which follow-up research question should be checked before forming a view.
Review
Review the delta, not only the final answer.
Did the bear shock change the actor graph or only the final summary?
Which assumption failed first when the downside catalyst was introduced?
Did the report separate evidence from market narrative?
Which resolution criterion or timing detail needs manual review?
Does the next research question become sharper after the shock comparison?
Limits and safety boundaries
- Bear shock simulation is not investment, financial, legal, or trading advice.
- It is not an official Polymarket integration or endorsement.
- It does not guarantee market movement, probability, profit, or prediction accuracy.
- It is only useful when the market question, resolution criteria, and source packet are clear.
FAQ
Questions about bear shock simulation
What is a bear shock simulation?+
A bear shock simulation tests what happens when a scenario receives a negative or downside catalyst, such as adverse data, regulatory pressure, de-escalation, or evidence that supports the No side of a market question.
How is bear shock simulation different from a baseline run?+
A baseline run tests the scenario using current known context. A bear shock run deliberately injects one downside event so the team can inspect which assumptions break, which actors react, and which evidence gaps matter.
How is a bear shock different from a bull shock?+
A bull shock tests a plausible positive catalyst that strengthens the Yes path. A bear shock tests a plausible downside catalyst that strengthens the No path, so the two runs can be compared against the same baseline.
Can I use bear shock simulation for Polymarket research?+
You can use it to research Polymarket-style market questions by comparing baseline, bull shock, and bear shock scenarios. It is not trading advice, a price target, or an automated trading signal.
What should I upload for a bear shock run?+
Upload the market question, resolution criteria, current odds context if available, source links, the bull argument, the bear argument, and the specific shock you want MiroFish to test.
Should the bear shock be extreme?+
Usually no. A useful bear shock is plausible and specific. If the shock is too vague or too extreme, the output becomes less useful for reviewing market assumptions.
Read next
Use shock runs as research, not signals.
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